Michigan, The Only State to Lose Population in the 2010 Census

myFOXdetroit.com - Michigan will lose a seat in Congress after being the only state to experience a population drop-off over the past 10 years, according to census data released Tuesday that confirms the depth and persistence of its economic slide.

Results of the 2010 headcount show the number of Michigan residents fell by 0.6 percent since 2000. Michigan still ranks eighth nationwide in population, yet lost so much ground to other states that it will have just 14 representatives in Congress starting in 2012, down from 15 this year. That continues a decline since 1970, when the delegation consisted of 19 representatives.

"This reinforces the need to get our house in order, reinventing government and fixing Michigan's economy . and doing it quickly," said Geralyn Lasher, spokeswoman for incoming Gov. Rick Snyder.

The U.S. Census Bureau put Michigan's 2010 population at 9,883,640, down from 9,938,444 in 2000. Experts say the culprit was a deep, decade-long recession, triggered by the auto industry's struggles, that sent many residents elsewhere in search of jobs.

"It's just been a bad decade for the industrial Midwest as a whole, and Michigan has borne the brunt of it," said William Frey, a Brookings Institution demographer. "It illustrates just how much the economy is tied to population growth."

Neighboring Ohio and Illinois also lost House seats, while Wisconsin and Indiana held onto theirs.

Michigan officials had braced for bad news, although the Office of Management, Budget and Technology was hoping its vigorous campaign to register as many residents as possible would provide a boost, spokesman Curt Weiss said.

The blitz was aimed primarily at retirees who spend winters in Florida, Arizona and other sunny locales. Officials believe as many as 200,000 of them may have failed to list Michigan as their primary residence for the 2000 census.

"We were actually hoping to be up just a touch, so it's a slight surprise," Weiss said.

Dropping a seat erodes Michigan's clout in Congress, a problem that may be partially offset by the presence in key positions of lawmakers such as Rep. Fred Upton, who becomes chairman of the Energy and Commerce Committee next year, and Rep. Dave Camp, incoming chairman of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee.

The situation will add further intrigue to the process of redrawing congressional and state legislative districts, which takes place after every census. The task is handled by the state Legislature, which will be under Republican control for at least the next two years. The incoming governor, Rick Snyder, is also a Republican.

That means the GOP will have the upper hand in fashioning a district map favorable to its candidates. A likely scenario would merge two majority-Democratic seats in southeastern Michigan, forcing the incumbents to run against each other or retire.

Still, Republicans will have to proceed cautiously to avoid running afoul of laws meant to prevent blatant partisanship and discrimination against minority voters, said Ed Sarpolus, a Lansing political strategist.

For that reason, they probably will preserve the two majority-black districts in the Detroit area held by veteran Rep. John Conyers and incoming freshman Rep. Hansen Clarke, making Democrats in nearby districts such as Reps. Sander Levin and Gary Peters more vulnerable, Sarpolus said. Another potential target is the district of veteran Democrat John Dingell.

"Redistricting is going to test whether Republicans will be capable of being bipartisan and fair and responsive to residents of communities throughout the state instead of simply indulging in political gerrymandering," Levin said.

Mark Brewer, the state Democratic chair, said the new district maps should reflect what he said was a roughly 50-50 split between Republicans and Democrats in Michigan.

Lasher declined comment on reapportionment, saying Snyder's focus was government reform and job growth.

"There's not too much the Republicans can do to improve on their situation because it's so good already," said Paul Abramson, a political science professor at Michigan State University.

Census data also are used to allocate federal funds for more than 140 federal programs, including highway construction, education, low-income housing loans and health care for the needy.

"With the lower census numbers, it will likely mean fewer federal dollars flowing into Michigan at a time when the need for services remains high," said Karen Holcomb-Merrill of the Michigan League for Human Services. "Without these dollars, state leaders will be even more challenged to address the $1.7 billion budget gap."