Fox 2 Poll: Hoekstra leads Stabenow in Senate race - Fox 2 News Headlines

Fox 2 Poll: Hoekstra leads Stabenow in Senate race

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The following poll was commissioned by Fox 2 News Detroit and conducted by Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B and not commissioned on behalf of or by any candidate or political organization.

Hoekstra vs. Stabenow

(FMW)B reports the Michigan senate seat held by two term Senator Debbie Stabenow is considered a toss up to leaning Democrats by most D.C. pundits and analysis. In spite of a significant financial advantage and the benefit of bringing back federal investments into Michigan, Senator Stabenow expected to have a tough re-election campaign on her hands against either of the two Republican front runners. In our July 28th poll for Fox 2 News, Senator Stabenow has a 52.60% to 42.92% lead (9.68 points) in head to head matchup against former U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra.

In the span of two weeks, Hoekstra has wiped out the gap and a narrow 2.35 point advantage. While the positive Hoekstra margin is within the margin of error, it represents a 12.03 point shift in the campaign. The aggregate results for ballot matchup are listed below:

Question:

The 2012 United States Senate election will be held in November. Assuming Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow faces Republican Congressman Pete Hoekstra; who are you most likely to vote for?

(Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow):                                         45.93%

(Republican U.S. Congressman Pete Hoekstra):                                      48.28%

(Another candidate):                                                                                 2.88%

(Undecided):                                                                                              5.25%

The findings reflect two possible trends that are helping Hoekstra:

  • The Paul Ryan Coattails effect
  • The Super PAC ad campaign against Stabenow

The aggregate Michigan Statewide polling study sample size of 1,733 respondents has a 2.35% margin of error, with a confidence level of 95%.

(FMW)B findings suggest that Congressman Ryan is having a positive impact on Hoekstra campaign as well. The fact that Ryan's budget mirrors a number of Hoekstra campaign talking points is helpful during this slight lull period in the direct campaign. Hoekstra is also benefiting from various Super PAC's that have started airing ads against Stabenow. While Stabenow has a direct financial advantage over Hoekstra, the Super PAC's are narrowing the field and defining her while Hoekstra conserves cash. Stabenow needs to ramp up and start reintroducing herself to Michigan voters now. She should not wait until after Labor Day or later in September.

Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automated polling random survey of Michigan registered and most likely November 2012 General election voters to determine their voting and issue preferences on the Presidential election, United States Senate general election match-ups, the impact of Rep. Paul Ryan's addition to the Republican ticket as vice presidential nominee and the desire for intervention in Middle East foreign affairs.

Forty-one thousand five hundred and fifty-two (41,552) calls were placed, and 1,733 respondents fully participated in the survey. The response rate for this survey was 4.17%. 

The Stabenow campaign has issued a statement in response to the (FMW)B poll:

"Analysts say this polling firm is heavily slanted toward Republicans, by an average of 11 points. For example, virtually every poll shows the presidential race to be tied in Florida, yet Foster McCollum White has Romney winning by 15 points. Given the Republican tilt, this poll means that Senator Stabenow actually has a strong lead--just like every other polling firm shows--and is well-positioned to keep representing middle class families in the U.S. Senate."  -Cullen Schwarz, Stabenow spokesman

To view results from the entire set of poll questions about the general election including information on Obama vs. Romney, what level involvement the U.S. should be involved in the Middle East and more... CLICK HERE>>

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