The Quarterback Drop off - Fox 2 News Headlines

The Quarterback Drop off

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Waiting for a quarterback has been the right move for years in fantasy football. The addition of the younger players at the quarterback position makes the wait easier, and absolutely necessary.

QUARTERBACKS

No. 1 QB Drew Brees  362.18 points scored

No. 10 QB Matthew Stafford 292.5 points scored  80.7%

No. 15 QB Joe Flacco  245.48 points scored  67.8%

No. 20 QB Ben Roethlisberger 228.94 points scored  63.2%

RUNNING BACKS

No. 1 RB Adrian Peterson 310.4 points scored

No. 10 RB Trent Richardson 203.2 points scored  65.5%

No. 15 RB Shonn Green  168 points scored  54.1%

No. 20 RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis 154.4 points scored  49.7%

No. 25 RB Danny Woodhead 115.6 points scored  37.2%

WIDE RECEIVERS

No. 1 WR Calvin Johnson  225.2 points scored  

No. 10 WR Roddy White  176.4 points scored  78.3%

No. 20 WR Lance Moore  140 points scored  62.2%

No. 30 WR Golden Tate  119.27 points scored  53%

No. 40 WR Danario Alexander 107.6 points scored  47.8%

Looking at the numbers above, we can see that the No. 10 quarterback was 80.7 percent as valuable as the No. 1 quarterback.  The No. 15 QB was 67.8 percent as valuable and the No. 20 QB was 63.2 percent as valuable as the No. 1 QB. 

In most leagues there are 10-12 starting quarterbacks, so even the last drafted starting quarterback starter will be around 74 percent as valuable as the No. 1, but you can get him in the 7th round instead of selecting a quarterback in Round 1. This speaks to how you can assure that every pick you make is one of value.

This might sound like a steep drop-off but let's look at the running backs.  We can see that the No. 10 running back was 65.5 percent as valuable as the No. 1 running back.  The No. 15 RB was 54.1 percent as valuable and the No. 20 RB was 49.7 percent as valuable as the No. 1 RB.  Remember that you have to start at least 2 running backs and that means the drop-off even among the running back starters (the top 24) is absolutely massive.

As shown above, the drop-off in quarterbacks and wide receivers is significantly less than it is in running backs.  The approach to wait for a quarterback is and take one later in your draft is proved by the numbers above.  Further complicating matters by taking a quarterback is the fact that you have to start only 1 quarterback, while you have to start 2 running back and 2 or 3 wide receivers.

Another factor is the injection of young talent at the quarterback position that from the 2011 and 2012 draft classes. These numbers applied to fantasy drafts last year, but we saw four young quarterbacks emerge as fantasy starters in Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.

Waiting for a quarterback has been the right move for years in fantasy football. The addition of the younger players at the quarterback position makes the wait easier, and absolutely necessary.

At Fantasy Sports Geekly, it is our belief that you lose value if you draft a quarterback too early. We believe that loading up on running backs and wide receivers early in your draft delivers the most value as shown by the numbers above.

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